luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · September 25, 2025–September 29

Week 4 2025: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Chargers 21–18 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 21–18 vs Chargers 33% 10% Lucky
Jaguars 26–21 @ 49ers 40% 32% Lucky
Steelers 24–21 vs Vikings 43% 75% Deserved
Chiefs 37–20 vs Ravens 43% 37% Lucky
Bears 25–24 @ Raiders 46% 18% Lucky

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 21–18 vs Chargers 10% +90
2 Bears W 25–24 @ Raiders 18% +82
3 Eagles W 31–25 @ Buccaneers 25% +75
4 Dolphins W 27–21 vs Jets 31% +69
5 Jaguars W 26–21 @ 49ers 32% +68
6 Chiefs W 37–20 vs Ravens 37% +63
7 Patriots W 42–13 vs Panthers 75% +25
8 Steelers W 24–21 vs Vikings 75% +25
9 Falcons W 34–27 vs Commanders 77% +23
10 Seahawks W 23–20 @ Cardinals 83% +17
11 Texans W 26–0 vs Titans 83% +17
12 Rams W 27–20 vs Colts 86% +14
13 Broncos W 28–3 vs Bengals 90% +10
14 Bills W 31–19 vs Saints 91% +9
15 Cowboys T 40–40 vs Packers 46% +4
16 Lions W 34–10 vs Browns 96% +4
17 Browns L 10–34 @ Lions 4% −4
18 Packers T 40–40 @ Cowboys 54% −4
19 Saints L 19–31 @ Bills 9% −9
20 Bengals L 3–28 @ Broncos 10% −10
21 Colts L 20–27 @ Rams 14% −14
22 Titans L 0–26 @ Texans 17% −17
23 Cardinals L 20–23 vs Seahawks 17% −17
24 Commanders L 27–34 @ Falcons 23% −23
25 Vikings L 21–24 @ Steelers 25% −25
26 Panthers L 13–42 @ Patriots 25% −25
27 Ravens L 20–37 @ Chiefs 63% −63
28 49ers L 21–26 vs Jaguars 68% −68
29 Jets L 21–27 @ Dolphins 69% −69
30 Buccaneers L 25–31 vs Eagles 75% −75
31 Raiders L 24–25 vs Bears 82% −82
32 Chargers L 18–21 @ Giants 90% −90