luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Panthers at Patriots, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Panthers 42–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:55 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 24 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Carolina Panthers 13
New England Patriots 42

September 28, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −5.5

Luck index +25 Patriots lucky · −25 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 27 NE 13
  2. 2 CAR 13 NE 7
  3. 3 CAR 12 NE 10
  4. 4 CAR 19 NE 20
  5. 5 CAR 13 NE 17
  6. 6 CAR 16 NE 23
  7. 7 CAR 9 NE 20
  8. 8 CAR 13 NE 27
  9. 9 CAR 3 NE 21
  10. 10 CAR 9 NE 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 25% of them, Patriots 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+3.0%
Panthers by 9–166.9%
Panthers by 1–813.7%
Level after regulation4.1%
Patriots by 1–826.7%
Patriots by 9–1621.3%
Patriots by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 29, without the luck Patriots by 19.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 55 yds missed · 64% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 29 yards, Patriots 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 4 yards +1% CAR 0.0 pts
Q1 9:26 False Start on the Patriots (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q1 7:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Harold Landry), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 11:31 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 7:51 Face Mask on the Patriots (Austin Hooper), 15 yards +1% CAR +1.6 pts
Q2 6:56 Tripping on the Panthers (Nick Scott), 10 yards +1% NE +1.9 pts
Q2 5:43 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 0:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 0 yards, wiping out the play +6% NE +3.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Dell Pettus), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 13:30 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (TreVeyon Henderson), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 2:57 False Start on the Panthers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.5 pts
Q4 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:51 The Panthers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +2% NE CAR: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 6:36 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% NE CAR: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 5:55 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +24% NE NE: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 4:19 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q1 3:10 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% NE CAR: Punt
6 Q2 10:05 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
7 Q2 9:59 R. Fitzgerald missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +2% NE CAR: Punt
8 Q2 0:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jared Wilson (NE OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jahlani Tavai (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Legette (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Wonnum (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 29
Luck in points
9.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 19.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 25% · Patriots 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Panthers · Patriots

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