luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Bears at Raiders, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears stole one. They beat the Raiders 25–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 61 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:38 left): D. Carlson had a 54-yard field goal blocked, worth 40 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 25
Las Vegas Raiders 24

September 28, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1.5

Luck index +82 Bears very lucky · −82 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 20 LV 7
  2. 2 CHI 16 LV 13
  3. 3 CHI 31 LV 33
  4. 4 CHI 24 LV 28
  5. 5 CHI 13 LV 20
  6. 6 CHI 14 LV 25
  7. 7 CHI 10 LV 24
  8. 8 CHI 21 LV 39
  9. 9 CHI 0 LV 23
  10. 10 CHI 10 LV 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 18% of them, Raiders 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.3%
Bears by 9–164.9%
Bears by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation1.4%
Raiders by 1–823.5%
Raiders by 9–1623.2%
Raiders by 17+35.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 1, without the luck Raiders by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Santos, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 54 yds blocked · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 8 for 60 yards, Raiders 5 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 3:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.1 pts
Q1 0:04 Illegal Motion on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 5:34 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Olamide Zaccheaus), 10 yards +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Justin Shorter), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 14:42 Face Mask on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 15 yards +5% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 12:12 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 11:38 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jack Bech), 10 yards +1% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 3:49 False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 3:43 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 1 yard 0% CHI +0.1 pts
Q4 14:20 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% LV +2.2 pts
Q4 13:18 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Germaine Pratt), 5 yards +2% CHI +1.0 pts
Q4 4:08 False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.6 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:00 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% CHI LV: Turnover
2 Q1 7:21 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% CHI LV: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:24 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Bears were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% LV CHI: Punt
4 Q2 8:58 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% CHI LV: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:44 The Bears converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +17% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:20 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% LV LV: Field goal
7 Q4 1:45 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:38 The game turned hereD. Carlson had a 54-yard field goal blockedKicks · 71% expected for him, 53 of 70 from 45+ before +40% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Decamerion Richardson (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darnell Wright (CHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Darnell Wright (CHI OL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Colston Loveland (CHI TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (CHI DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 3% · Raiders 97%

Final margin
Bears by 1
Luck in points
9.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 18% · Raiders 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Bears · Raiders

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