luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Commanders at Falcons, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Commanders 34–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:34 left): Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Washington Commanders 27
Atlanta Falcons 34

September 28, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +23 Falcons about even · −23 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 27 ATL 13
  2. 2 WAS 14 ATL 10
  3. 3 WAS 10 ATL 12
  4. 4 WAS 23 ATL 27
  5. 5 WAS 26 ATL 33
  6. 6 WAS 24 ATL 34
  7. 7 WAS 20 ATL 34
  8. 8 WAS 17 ATL 34
  9. 9 WAS 14 ATL 35
  10. 10 WAS 3 ATL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 23% of them, Falcons 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+2.5%
Commanders by 9–166.3%
Commanders by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Falcons by 1–827.0%
Falcons by 9–1621.0%
Falcons by 17+29.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 7, without the luck Falcons by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Gay, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Gay, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Romo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 50 yards, Falcons 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:31 Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Feleipe Franks), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.4 pts
Q2 9:39 False Start on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 6:58 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Marcus Mariota), 10 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 3:08 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Trey Amos), 5 yards +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 14:34 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% ATL +3.8 pts
Q3 14:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Luke McCaffrey), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +2.0 pts
Q3 10:42 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:14 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 10 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 14:15 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Billy Bowman), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 1:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (DeAundre Alford), 25 yards +2% WAS +2.3 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 4:28 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:00 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% WAS WAS: Punt
4 Q2 0:07 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q3 14:34 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 577 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +14% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:52 The Commanders converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q3 10:12 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:53 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.4 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Brandon Coleman (WAS T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 23% · Falcons 77%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
4.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 23% · Falcons 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Commanders · Falcons

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