2025 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2025: game by game
The Packers went 9–7–1 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.5 wins. Luck cost them 3.0: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Lions | W 27–13 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 2 | vs Commanders | W 27–18 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | L 10–13 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 4 | @ Cowboys | T 40–40 | 54% | −4 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | W 27–18 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | W 27–23 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 8 | @ Steelers | W 35–25 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | L 13–16 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 10 | vs Eagles | L 7–10 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 11 | @ Giants | W 27–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 12 | vs Vikings | W 23–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | @ Lions | W 31–24 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 14 | vs Bears | W 28–21 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 26–34 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | L 16–22 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 17 | vs Ravens | L 24–41 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 18 | @ Vikings | L 3–16 | 13% | −13 |
| Wild Card | @ Bears | L 27–31 | 53% | −53 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.67 | +12.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.26 | −5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.09 | +9.4 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.2 |
| Kicks | −1.48 | −17.1 |