luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Vikings at Packers, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 23–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Packers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:31 left): the Vikings were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 6
Green Bay Packers 23

November 23, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −6.5

Luck index +2 Packers about even · −2 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 21 GB 24
  2. 2 MIN 6 GB 13
  3. 3 MIN 6 GB 17
  4. 4 MIN 3 GB 17
  5. 5 MIN 3 GB 20
  6. 6 MIN 6 GB 25
  7. 7 MIN 9 GB 31
  8. 8 MIN 12 GB 37
  9. 9 MIN 0 GB 29
  10. 10 MIN 0 GB 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 2% of them, Packers 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.0%
Vikings by 9–160.3%
Vikings by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Packers by 1–85.5%
Packers by 9–1614.5%
Packers by 17+78.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 17, without the luck Packers by 13.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Reichard, 59 yds made · 57% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 2 for 29 yards, Packers 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 24 yards +7% GB +2.8 pts
Q1 2:03 False Start on the Packers (John FitzPatrick), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 11:18 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q4 9:35 False Start on the Packers (John FitzPatrick), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% GB MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 12:58 W. Reichard made 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 18 of 24 from 45+ before +4% MIN MIN: Punt
3 Q1 10:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 4441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:13 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q1 2:49 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% GB GB: Punt
6 Q2 10:31 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +11% GB MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 0:15 W. Reichard made 59-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 19 of 25 from 45+ before +6% MIN MIN: Punt
8 Q3 11:49 The Vikings fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (GB RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matthew Golden (GB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 17
Luck in points
3.7 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 2% · Packers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Vikings · Packers

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