luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Falcons at Saints, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:53 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 33 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 24
New Orleans Saints 10

November 23, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −1.5

Luck index +6 Falcons about even · −6 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 36 NO 6
  2. 2 ATL 31 NO 7
  3. 3 ATL 23 NO 3
  4. 4 ATL 24 NO 7
  5. 5 ATL 22 NO 7
  6. 6 ATL 26 NO 13
  7. 7 ATL 30 NO 20
  8. 8 ATL 13 NO 7
  9. 9 ATL 13 NO 10
  10. 10 ATL 13 NO 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

45 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.11 better by 0.03
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.12 better by 0.32
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.04 worse by 0.24
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.14 worse by 0.00

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 94% of them, Saints 6%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+55.5%
Falcons by 9–1622.1%
Falcons by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation1.6%
Saints by 1–84.3%
Saints by 9–161.2%
Saints by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 14, without the luck Falcons by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. Grupe, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 9 for 82 yards, Saints 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:41 False Start on the Falcons (Teagan Quitoriano), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +1.3 pts
Q1 6:18 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 5:13 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jordan Howden), 7 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 2:42 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Devaughn Vele), 10 yards +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.3 pts
Q3 9:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Xavier Watts), 12 yards +5% NO +1.4 pts
Q3 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 13 yards +9% NO +1.8 pts
Q3 0:20 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 12:22 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 14 yards +6% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 12:13 Taunting on the Falcons (Feleipe Franks), 15 yards +5% NO +1.0 pts
Q4 12:04 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Kirk Cousins), 13 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q4 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Cobee Bryant), 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 3:09 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:00 The Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL NO: Missed field goal
2 Q1 8:35 B. Grupe missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +11% ATL NO: Punt
3 Q2 6:53 The Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +33% NO ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 0:56 B. Grupe missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 23 of 34 from 45+ before +14% ATL NO: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 5534 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% ATL NO: Field goal
7 Q4 14:19 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
8 Q4 12:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3100 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +12% ATL NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taliese Fuaga (NO T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 65% · Saints 35%

Final margin
Falcons by 14
Luck in points
9.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 94% · Saints 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Falcons · Saints

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