luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Seahawks at Titans, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Titans 30–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:11 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 6, worth 20 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 30
Tennessee Titans 24

November 23, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −12.5

Luck index +2 Seahawks about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 SEA 32 TEN 0
  2. 2 SEA 36 TEN 10
  3. 3 SEA 38 TEN 17
  4. 4 SEA 24 TEN 6
  5. 5 SEA 30 TEN 14
  6. 6 SEA 13 TEN 0
  7. 7 SEA 21 TEN 10
  8. 8 SEA 28 TEN 20
  9. 9 SEA 24 TEN 19
  10. 10 SEA 16 TEN 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+68.1%
Seahawks by 9–1621.7%
Seahawks by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Titans by 1–81.8%
Titans by 9–160.3%
Titans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 6, without the luck Seahawks by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 11 for 69 yards, Titans 10 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +1.2 pts
Q1 5:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 15 yards +5% SEA +1.4 pts
Q1 4:41 False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.4 pts
Q1 0:32 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 0:17 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% SEA +1.8 pts
Q2 11:29 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Joe Bachie), 10 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 5:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 3 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 4:52 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:16 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 13:19 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q3 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 6:40 Illegal Formation on the Titans (Kalel Mullings), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 6:34 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% SEA +1.4 pts
Q3 6:10 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 3:45 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 2:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 1:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 1:18 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Titans (Joey Slye), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q4 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +5% SEA +1.6 pts
Q4 0:43 Illegal Touch Kick on the Titans, 0 yards 0% SEA 0.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +13% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 6:54 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% SEA TEN: Field goal
3 Q1 4:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q1 1:08 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 11:11 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +20% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:34 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% SEA TEN: Punt
7 Q2 3:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:54 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% SEA TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elic Ayomanor (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Hance (TEN OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ernest Jones (SEA LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 81% · Titans 19%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
2.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Seahawks · Titans

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