luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Giants at Lions, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Giants 34–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Lions were 85% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 4:26 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 73 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 27
Detroit Lions 34

November 23, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −14

Luck index +25 Lions lucky · −25 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 54 DET 35
  2. 2 NYG 23 DET 14
  3. 3 NYG 23 DET 20
  4. 4 NYG 30 DET 32
  5. 5 NYG 39 DET 44
  6. 6 NYG 45 DET 54
  7. 7 NYG 30 DET 41
  8. 8 NYG 17 DET 33
  9. 9 NYG 15 DET 38
  10. 10 NYG 30 DET 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 25% of them, Lions 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.1%
Giants by 9–166.9%
Giants by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–822.8%
Lions by 9–1620.9%
Lions by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Lions by 7, without the luck Lions by 14.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Bates, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Bates, 59 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 7 for 59 yards, Lions 9 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:09 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +1.1 pts
Q1 8:20 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q1 1:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Brian Branch), 9 yards +3% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 12:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Dane Belton), 14 yards +3% DET +1.6 pts
Q2 11:53 Intentional Grounding on the Lions (Jared Goff), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.1 pts
Q2 6:21 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Zaire Barnes), 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 4:01 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 24 yards +4% NYG +1.3 pts
Q3 12:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play +16% NYG +3.7 pts
Q4 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Grant Stuard), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 9:02 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 6:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 8 yards +6% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 6:08 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DET +1.8 pts
Q4 2:50 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +10% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 1:12 Defensive Delay of Game on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 0:18 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q3 2:25 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +28% NYG DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:36 The Giants converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +17% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:33 J. Bates made 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 15 of 22 from 45+ before +18% DET DET: Touchdown
7 QOT 8:43 The Giants converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +32% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 4:26 The game turned hereThe Giants were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +73% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Giovanni Manu (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out, replaced by j.winston · 1.1 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Lions 98%

Final margin
Lions by 7
Luck in points
7.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 25% · Lions 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Giants · Lions

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