Week 12 2025 · November 20, 2025
Bills at Texans, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Bills 23–19, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.
Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:24 left): the Bills were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 51 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 19 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Texans very lucky · −64 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 6, Texans win 4.
- 1 BUF 31 HOU 6
- 2 BUF 27 HOU 9
- 3 BUF 24 HOU 10
- 4 BUF 9 HOU 0
- 5 BUF 35 HOU 29
- 6 BUF 17 HOU 14
- 7 BUF 16 HOU 19
- 8 BUF 7 HOU 13
- 9 BUF 23 HOU 33
- 10 BUF 17 HOU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 64% of them, Texans 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 19.1% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Texans by 17+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Prater, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Prater, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Bills 6 for 54 yards, Texans 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:04 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Jordan Hancock), 10 yards | +3% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Jackson Hawes), 10 yards | +3% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:47 | Face Mask on the Bills (Deone Walker), 15 yards | +5% HOU +2.0 pts |
| Q2 6:09 | Illegal Contact on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards | +4% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:11 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% BUF +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:20 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BUF +1.7 pts |
| Q3 9:15 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Cameron Lewis), 9 yards | +3% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | False Start on the Texans (E.J. Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% HOU +0.3 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:19 | The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +15% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:56 | Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams | +21% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:09 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +10% HOU | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:19 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% HOU | BUF: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 10:14 | The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +10% HOU | BUF: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:56 | The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +17% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:51 | The Bills converted 4th & 273rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +33% BUF | BUF: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:24 | The Bills were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +51% HOU | BUF: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 4.7 pts
- Jalen Pitre (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
- M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 36% · Texans 64%
- Final margin
- Texans by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 5.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 64% · Texans 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Bills · 
Texans
More from Week 12 2025
- Colts at Chiefs KC 23–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 23–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 26–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jets at Ravens BAL 23–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Steelers at Bears CHI 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 30–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders CLE 24–10 · replay 58% for the winner
- Jaguars at Cardinals JAX 27–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints ATL 24–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 24–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 20–9 · replay 82% for the winner