luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Jets at Ravens, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Jets 23–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:43 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Isaiah Oliver), 34 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

New York Jets 10
Baltimore Ravens 23

November 23, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −14

Luck index +20 Ravens about even · −20 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 24 BAL 13
  2. 2 NYJ 16 BAL 13
  3. 3 NYJ 13 BAL 16
  4. 4 NYJ 17 BAL 23
  5. 5 NYJ 13 BAL 21
  6. 6 NYJ 14 BAL 26
  7. 7 NYJ 23 BAL 37
  8. 8 NYJ 0 BAL 18
  9. 9 NYJ 3 BAL 25
  10. 10 NYJ 10 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 20% of them, Ravens 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.5%
Jets by 9–166.0%
Jets by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation2.3%
Ravens by 1–827.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.4%
Ravens by 17+31.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.3 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 13, without the luck Ravens by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Loop, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Loop, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 6 for 81 yards, Ravens 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:16 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.4 pts
Q2 13:26 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 5 yards +4% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 12:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q3 14:47 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 14:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Isaiah Oliver), 34 yards +12% BAL +3.4 pts
Q3 5:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 17 yards +6% BAL +2.1 pts
Q3 3:33 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q3 1:45 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% BAL +1.4 pts
Q4 8:04 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +4% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +4.1 pts
Q4 0:45 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.3 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:11 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedM. Taylor dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 41 catchable balls before this +9% BAL NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 7:06 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q2 4:09 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:38 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% BAL NYJ: Punt
5 Q3 14:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Isaiah Oliver), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4422 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +12% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:29 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:42 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% BAL NYJ: Field goal
8 Q3 5:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2377 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Johnson (NYJ WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 27% · Ravens 73%

Final margin
Ravens by 13
Luck in points
9.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 20% · Ravens 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Jets · Ravens

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