luckadjusted

Wild Card 2025 · January 10, 2026

Packers at Bears, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Packers 31–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 48 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:56 left): B. McManus missed 44-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Bears. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:08 left): R. Doubs dropped a catchable pass.

Final

Green Bay Packers 27
Chicago Bears 31

January 10, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +53 Bears lucky · −53 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 GB 34 CHI 13
  2. 2 GB 34 CHI 20
  3. 3 GB 27 CHI 17
  4. 4 GB 30 CHI 24
  5. 5 GB 24 CHI 21
  6. 6 GB 21 CHI 23
  7. 7 GB 16 CHI 21
  8. 8 GB 13 CHI 22
  9. 9 GB 7 CHI 21
  10. 10 GB 10 CHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 53% of them, Bears 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+11.1%
Packers by 9–1614.9%
Packers by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation5.6%
Bears by 1–821.7%
Bears by 9–1613.9%
Bears by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.6 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 4, without the luck Packers by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 60% expected
  • C. Santos, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds missed · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 65 yards, Bears 2 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:02 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josh Whyle), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 6:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 15 yards +1% CHI +1.5 pts
Q3 1:33 Intentional Grounding on the Packers (Jordan Love), 10 yards +1% CHI +1.2 pts
Q4 13:29 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q4 12:57 Intentional Grounding on the Packers (Jordan Love), 10 yards +1% CHI +1.2 pts
Q4 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 5:37 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 3:02 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:13 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% CHI +0.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +13% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q4 2:56 The game turned hereB. McManus missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +17% CHI GB: End of game
3 Q4 1:54 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:08 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 263 catchable balls before this +29% CHI GB: End of game
5 Q4 1:05 The Packers converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% GB GB: End of game
6 Q4 0:55 J. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 165 catchable balls before this +26% CHI GB: End of game
7 Q4 0:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% GB GB: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 56% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Gardner-Johnson (CHI DB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • John FitzPatrick (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 92% · Bears 8%

Final margin
Bears by 4
Luck in points
15.6 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 53% · Bears 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Packers · Bears

More from Wild Card 2025