luckadjusted

Wild Card 2025 · January 11, 2026

Chargers at Patriots, Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Chargers 16–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:17 left): the Chargers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 3
New England Patriots 16

January 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +4 Patriots about even · −4 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 LAC 15 NE 17
  2. 2 LAC 17 NE 23
  3. 3 LAC 10 NE 20
  4. 4 LAC 17 NE 28
  5. 5 LAC 14 NE 27
  6. 6 LAC 14 NE 30
  7. 7 LAC 0 NE 19
  8. 8 LAC 7 NE 30
  9. 9 LAC 20 NE 48
  10. 10 LAC 13 NE 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 4% of them, Patriots 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.1%
Chargers by 9–160.5%
Chargers by 1–83.4%
Level after regulation0.6%
Patriots by 1–89.5%
Patriots by 9–1621.0%
Patriots by 17+64.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 13, without the luck Patriots by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • A. Borregales, 35 yds made · 90% expected
  • A. Borregales, 39 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 20 yards, Patriots 2 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:17 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.7 pts
Q1 8:24 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 9:16 Face Mask on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 13 yards +3% LAC +1.7 pts
Q3 6:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 22 yards +7% LAC +1.5 pts
Q4 9:39 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 5:39 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.7 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:39 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LAC NE: Field goal
2 Q1 5:17 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% NE LAC: Field goal
3 Q1 1:41 The Patriots converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +12% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 3:36 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedR. Stevenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 189 catchable balls before this +10% LAC NE: Punt
5 Q3 7:12 The Patriots fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC NE: Field goal
6 Q3 6:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 50 flags in 6565 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q3 3:57 The Patriots converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
8 Q4 14:14 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedK. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 369 catchable balls before this +9% NE LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mack Hollins (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 2% · Patriots 98%

Final margin
Patriots by 13
Luck in points
1.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 4% · Patriots 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2025 games · Chargers · Patriots

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