luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · January 10, 2026–January 12

Wild Card 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bills beat the Jaguars 27–24 in a game they win 44% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Wild Card 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
49ers 23–19 @ Eagles 33% 93% Deserved
Bears 31–27 vs Packers 43% 47% Coin flip
Bills 27–24 @ Jaguars 46% 44% Coin flip

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bills W 27–24 @ Jaguars 44% +56
2 Bears W 31–27 vs Packers 47% +53
3 Rams W 34–31 @ Panthers 54% +46
4 Texans W 30–6 @ Steelers 74% +26
5 49ers W 23–19 @ Eagles 93% +7
6 Patriots W 16–3 vs Chargers 96% +4
7 Chargers L 3–16 @ Patriots 4% −4
8 Eagles L 19–23 vs 49ers 7% −7
9 Steelers L 6–30 vs Texans 26% −26
10 Panthers L 31–34 vs Rams 46% −46
11 Packers L 27–31 @ Bears 53% −53
12 Jaguars L 24–27 vs Bills 56% −56