Bills 30 
Broncos 33 Coin flip · Broncos win 49% of replays 2025 NFL season · January 17, 2026–January 18
Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win
2 of 4 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bears 20–17 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Bills 30 Broncos 33 Coin flip · Broncos win 49% of replays 
49ers 6 
Seahawks 41 Deserved · Seahawks win 85% of replays 
Texans 16 
Patriots 28 Deserved · Patriots win 88% of replays 
Rams lucky 20 
Bears unlucky 17 Winner outplayed · Rams win 34% of replays Divisional round 2025 upsets
Every betting favorite won this round.
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams | W 20–17 @ Bears | 34% | +66 |
| 2 | Broncos | W 33–30 vs Bills | 49% | +51 |
| 3 | Seahawks | W 41–6 vs 49ers | 85% | +15 |
| 4 | Patriots | W 28–16 vs Texans | 88% | +12 |
| 5 | Texans | L 16–28 @ Patriots | 12% | −12 |
| 6 | 49ers | L 6–41 @ Seahawks | 15% | −15 |
| 7 | Bills | L 30–33 @ Broncos | 51% | −51 |
| 8 | Bears | L 17–20 vs Rams | 66% | −66 |