luckadjusted

Divisional round 2025 · January 18, 2026

Texans at Patriots, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Texans 28–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:41 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 32 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Houston Texans 16
New England Patriots 28

January 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +12 Patriots about even · −12 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 31 NE 23
  2. 2 HOU 23 NE 26
  3. 3 HOU 23 NE 29
  4. 4 HOU 20 NE 29
  5. 5 HOU 16 NE 27
  6. 6 HOU 12 NE 25
  7. 7 HOU 6 NE 23
  8. 8 HOU 13 NE 34
  9. 9 HOU 17 NE 44
  10. 10 HOU 0 NE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 12% of them, Patriots 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.1%
Texans by 9–163.6%
Texans by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Patriots by 1–816.6%
Patriots by 9–1620.8%
Patriots by 17+49.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 12, without the luck Patriots by 11.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 32 yards, Patriots 3 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:07 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 7:13 Face Mask on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 7 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 5:39 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% NE +2.9 pts
Q2 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 20 yards +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 3:02 False Start on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 21 yards +6% HOU +2.0 pts
Q4 14:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 17 yards +7% NE +2.6 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:41 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +13% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:47 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 12:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:41 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +32% NE HOU: Turnover
5 Q2 8:37 The Texans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% NE HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:02 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% HOU NE: Turnover
7 Q3 8:16 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% HOU NE: Punt
8 Q4 13:05 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mack Hollins (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Trent Brown (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 2% · Patriots 98%

Final margin
Patriots by 12
Luck in points
0.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 12% · Patriots 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · Texans · Patriots

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