luckadjusted

Divisional round 2025 · January 17, 2026

Bills at Broncos, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Bills 33–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 56 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:19 left): K. Shakir dropped a catchable pass, worth 40 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 30
Denver Broncos 33

January 17, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +51 Broncos lucky · −51 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 BUF 47 DEN 24
  2. 2 BUF 40 DEN 24
  3. 3 BUF 31 DEN 20
  4. 4 BUF 30 DEN 23
  5. 5 BUF 27 DEN 24
  6. 6 BUF 35 DEN 37
  7. 7 BUF 23 DEN 27
  8. 8 BUF 16 DEN 25
  9. 9 BUF 20 DEN 33
  10. 10 BUF 14 DEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 51% of them, Broncos 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.3%
Bills by 9–1614.8%
Bills by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation4.7%
Broncos by 1–821.4%
Broncos by 9–1614.1%
Broncos by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 3, without the luck Bills by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Lutz, 50 yds made · 67% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 68 yards, Broncos 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:29 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% DEN +2.6 pts
Q2 9:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:56 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 11:54 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 0:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.5 pts
QOT 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yards +22% DEN +1.8 pts
QOT 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yards +36% DEN +2.4 pts
QOT 5:17 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 6 yards +4% DEN +0.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:57 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% BUF DEN: Punt
2 Q4 2:38 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +18% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:19 The game turned hereK. Shakir dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 263 catchable balls before this +40% DEN BUF: Field goal
4 Q4 0:10 M. Prater made 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 55 of 74 from 45+ before +16% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 QOT 11:40 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +17% BUF BUF: Turnover
6 QOT 9:25 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% BUF BUF: Turnover
7 QOT 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 6414 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +22% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 QOT 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 32 flags in 4789 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +36% DEN DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Palmer (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 73% · Broncos 27%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
10.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Bills 51% · Broncos 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · Bills · Broncos

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