Divisional round 2025 · January 18, 2026
Rams at Bears, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Bears 20–17, but the Bears played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Bears converted 4th & 4, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final (OT)
 Los Angeles Rams | 20 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Rams very lucky · −66 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 3, Bears win 7.
- 1 LA 26 CHI 10
- 2 LA 28 CHI 20
- 3 LA 23 CHI 21
- 4 LA 27 CHI 29
- 5 LA 24 CHI 27
- 6 LA 30 CHI 37
- 7 LA 16 CHI 26
- 8 LA 10 CHI 25
- 9 LA 14 CHI 33
- 10 LA 10 CHI 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 34% of them, Bears 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 6.3% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 20.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 48 yds made · 73% expected
- H. Mevis, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- H. Mevis, 42 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Rams 1 for 5 yards, Bears 3 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 4:22 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards | +3% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 14 yards | +4% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q3 4:10 | False Start on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:43 | Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Jared Verse), 5 yards | +6% CHI +0.9 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:02 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +12% LA | CHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +14% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 3:50 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +13% LA | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 0:27 | The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +28% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | QOT 13:27 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +19% CHI | LA: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 8:04 | The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +23% CHI | CHI: Turnover |
| 7 | QOT 4:54 | The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +27% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 3:24 | H. Mevis made 42-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +17% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 15% · Bears 85%
- Final margin
- Rams by 3
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 34% · Bears 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · 
Rams · 
Bears
More from Divisional round 2025
- Bills at Broncos DEN 33–30 · replay 49% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SEA 41–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Texans at Patriots NE 28–16 · replay 88% for the winner