Patriots 10 
Broncos 7 Deserved · Patriots win 81% of replays 2025 NFL season · January 25, 2026
Conference championships 2025: who deserved to win
1 of 2 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27 in a game they win 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Patriots 10 Broncos 7 Deserved · Patriots win 81% of replays 
Rams unlucky 27 
Seahawks lucky 31 Winner outplayed · Seahawks win 22% of replays The Seahawks won on an off day 53% to win a fresh game, 22% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Conference championships 2025 upsets
Every betting favorite won this round.
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | W 31–27 vs Rams | 22% | +78 |
| 2 | Patriots | W 10–7 @ Broncos | 81% | +19 |
| 3 | Broncos | L 7–10 vs Patriots | 19% | −19 |
| 4 | Rams | L 27–31 @ Seahawks | 78% | −78 |