luckadjusted

NFC Championship 2025 · January 25, 2026

Rams at Seahawks, NFC Championship 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

The Seahawks won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:21 left): C. Parkinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 27
Seattle Seahawks 31

January 25, 2026 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −2.5

Luck index +78 Seahawks very lucky · −78 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Seahawks win 2.

  1. 1 LA 45 SEA 17
  2. 2 LA 50 SEA 28
  3. 3 LA 39 SEA 21
  4. 4 LA 27 SEA 13
  5. 5 LA 27 SEA 17
  6. 6 LA 31 SEA 24
  7. 7 LA 20 SEA 16
  8. 8 LA 32 SEA 31
  9. 9 LA 20 SEA 23
  10. 10 LA 21 SEA 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Seahawks won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.

31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.17 better by 0.15
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.09 worse by 0.12
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.14 better by 0.08
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.03 worse by 0.29

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 78% of them, Seahawks 22%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+31.6%
Rams by 9–1620.8%
Rams by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation2.6%
Seahawks by 1–811.5%
Seahawks by 9–166.0%
Seahawks by 17+2.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 4, without the luck Seahawks by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Mevis, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 30 yards, Seahawks 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:13 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% LA +1.5 pts
Q2 1:41 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.4 pts
Q3 4:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Omar Speights), 10 yards +1% SEA +1.0 pts
Q3 4:19 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 3:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 2:20 Taunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards +3% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 12:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Jared Verse), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 7:32 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:17 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Cobie Durant), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.6 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:17 The Rams fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SEA LA: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:23 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:20 The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsTaunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 4177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:08 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q4 8:21 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedC. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 150 catchable balls before this +15% SEA LA: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 8:16 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +11% LA LA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:06 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% SEA LA: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 43% · Seahawks 57%

Final margin
Seahawks by 4
Luck in points
3.0 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 78% · Seahawks 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2025 games · Rams · Seahawks

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