2026 season · in progress
Green Bay Packers, 2026: game by game
The Packers went 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | L 22–39 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 2 | @ Jets | W 20–17 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 3 | vs Falcons | L 14–35 | 10% | −10 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.08 | +1.6 |
| Kicks | −0.03 | −3.3 |
| Drops | −0.10 | −7.0 |
| Injuries | −0.13 | −4.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.31 | −8.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.46 | −7.6 |