luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Packers at Jets, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Jets 20–17, but the Jets played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:20 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 20
New York Jets 17

September 20, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +66 Packers very lucky · −66 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 GB 39 NYJ 23
  2. 2 GB 17 NYJ 10
  3. 3 GB 25 NYJ 23
  4. 4 GB 16 NYJ 18
  5. 5 GB 20 NYJ 24
  6. 6 GB 13 NYJ 20
  7. 7 GB 10 NYJ 20
  8. 8 GB 10 NYJ 23
  9. 9 GB 3 NYJ 20
  10. 10 GB 13 NYJ 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 34% of them, Jets 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+5.2%
Packers by 9–1611.2%
Packers by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation2.2%
Jets by 1–826.1%
Jets by 9–1619.3%
Jets by 17+18.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Packers by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Smack, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • T. Smack, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 14 for 133 yards, Jets 13 for 156 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q1 11:10 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +2.1 pts
Q1 10:04 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q1 7:54 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kamal Hadden), 7 yards +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 7:43 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Christian Watson), 4 yards +2% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q1 5:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 10 yards +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 1:51 Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 5 yards +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 12:20 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 8:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 34 yards +6% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q2 4:09 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Braiden McGregor), 10 yards +3% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 12:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Dani Dennis-Sutton), 3 yards +1% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 11:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandon Stephens), 23 yards +4% GB +1.8 pts
Q3 11:05 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 10:37 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 8:44 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (David Bailey), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.2 pts
Q3 3:05 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 6 yards +3% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q3 2:35 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Geno Smith), 15 yards +6% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 0:04 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 12:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Chris McClellan), 14 yards +6% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 11:08 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q4 9:51 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 9:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 38 yards +9% GB +2.6 pts
Q4 7:58 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Isaiah Davis), 10 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 0:21 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.2 pts
QOT 8:23 False Start on the Jets (Isaiah Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.3 pts
QOT 6:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yards +17% GB +1.1 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:14 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB GB: Punt
2 Q3 7:44 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% GB GB: Punt
3 Q3 0:04 The Jets converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q4 9:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 459 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:09 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYJ GB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:20 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +24% GB NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 0:02 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NYJ GB: Field goal
8 QOT 6:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 1449 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +17% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 77% · Jets 23%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
4.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 34% · Jets 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Packers · Jets

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