luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Dolphins at 49ers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Dolphins 35–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:32 left): R. Patterson missed 51-yard field goal, worth 8 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 13
San Francisco 49ers 35

September 20, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −12.5

Luck index +1 49ers about even · −1 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 7 SF 10
  2. 2 MIA 24 SF 31
  3. 3 MIA 21 SF 31
  4. 4 MIA 13 SF 27
  5. 5 MIA 16 SF 32
  6. 6 MIA 3 SF 22
  7. 7 MIA 0 SF 23
  8. 8 MIA 0 SF 27
  9. 9 MIA 0 SF 30
  10. 10 MIA 0 SF 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 1% of them, 49ers 99%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.1%
Dolphins by 9–160.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
49ers by 1–83.7%
49ers by 9–1613.6%
49ers by 17+81.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was 49ers by 22, without the luck 49ers by 27.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • R. Patterson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Patterson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 50 yards, 49ers 7 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SF +0.7 pts
Q1 0:07 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +1.0 pts
Q2 7:48 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 5 yards +1% SF +0.8 pts
Q2 4:34 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Keion White), 15 yards +3% MIA +2.2 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.8 pts
Q2 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% SF +1.1 pts
Q3 9:35 False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 5:07 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards 0% SF +0.9 pts
Q3 1:41 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Siran Neal), 10 yards 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +2.1 pts
Q4 14:03 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Luke Farrell), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +1.5 pts
Q4 10:45 Intentional Grounding on the 49ers (Brock Purdy), 18 yards 0% MIA +2.5 pts
Q4 8:12 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards 0% SF +1.0 pts
Q4 5:29 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +1.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +4% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 12:13 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:32 R. Patterson missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before +8% SF MIA: Field goal
4 Q1 9:20 D. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 305 catchable balls before this +4% MIA SF: Touchdown
5 Q1 7:22 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q1 5:33 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q1 0:49 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q2 3:01 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chop Robinson (MIA LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 22
Luck in points
5.2 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 27.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 1% · 49ers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Dolphins · 49ers

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