luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Saints at Ravens, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Saints stole one. They beat the Ravens 24–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:32 left): the Saints converted 4th & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 24
Baltimore Ravens 17

September 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −8.5

Luck index +87 Saints very lucky · −87 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 NO 19 BAL 13
  2. 2 NO 21 BAL 24
  3. 3 NO 10 BAL 14
  4. 4 NO 10 BAL 16
  5. 5 NO 28 BAL 37
  6. 6 NO 13 BAL 24
  7. 7 NO 13 BAL 26
  8. 8 NO 0 BAL 17
  9. 9 NO 10 BAL 30
  10. 10 NO 0 BAL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 13% of them, Ravens 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+1.1%
Saints by 9–163.5%
Saints by 1–88.7%
Level after regulation1.5%
Ravens by 1–829.2%
Ravens by 9–1625.4%
Ravens by 17+30.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 7, without the luck Ravens by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 49 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • D. Carlson, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • T. Loop, 49 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 5 for 35 yards, Ravens 7 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:45 Illegal Shift on the Ravens (LaJohntay Wester), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NO +1.5 pts
Q1 2:52 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q1 2:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Saints (Chris Olave), 15 yards +3% BAL +1.3 pts
Q2 10:04 Offensive Offside on the Saints (Bryce Lance), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 14:17 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Tavius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 8:12 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Chris Moore), 10 yards +3% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 7:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% NO +1.0 pts
Q3 2:32 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q3 1:41 False Start on the Ravens (Chris Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 9:42 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Jaylinn Hawkins), 1 yard 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q4 2:03 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Trey Hendrickson), 3 yards +4% NO +0.4 pts
Q4 1:54 False Start on the Saints (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:59 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 7:34 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 11:05 D. Carlson made 51-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 59 of 81 from 45+ before +7% NO NO: Punt
4 Q3 4:11 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% NO BAL: Field goal
5 Q3 3:28 T. Loop made 49-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +9% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q4 9:42 The Saints’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Ravens (Jaylinn Hawkins), 1 yardJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4450 snaps before, position avg 1 per 468 +8% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:41 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:32 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +15% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Vorhees (BAL OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Wood (NO LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 41% · Ravens 59%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
9.2 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Saints 13% · Ravens 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Saints · Ravens

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