luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 21, 2026

Giants at Rams, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 28–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:50 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

New York Giants 6
Los Angeles Rams 28

September 21, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −6.5

Luck index +6 Rams about even · −6 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 24 LA 20
  2. 2 NYG 24 LA 26
  3. 3 NYG 14 LA 20
  4. 4 NYG 7 LA 17
  5. 5 NYG 17 LA 30
  6. 6 NYG 14 LA 29
  7. 7 NYG 10 LA 28
  8. 8 NYG 10 LA 30
  9. 9 NYG 13 LA 37
  10. 10 NYG 20 LA 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 6% of them, Rams 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.3%
Giants by 9–161.4%
Giants by 1–84.6%
Level after regulation0.7%
Rams by 1–814.5%
Rams by 9–1618.9%
Rams by 17+59.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Giants: the final margin was Rams by 22, without the luck Rams by 32.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Zvada, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Mevis, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
  • D. Zvada, 52 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 3 for 20 yards, Rams 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yards +7% NYG +1.6 pts
Q1 7:02 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +7% LA +1.3 pts
Q1 1:33 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 14:35 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Konata Mumpfield), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 3:06 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Braden Fiske), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 11:22 False Start on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 6:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Tanner Ingle), 15 yards +1% NYG +1.4 pts
Q3 0:07 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 6:21 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:33 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +6% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q1 7:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 901 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 7:02 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:50 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:31 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% LA NYG: Punt
6 Q2 3:11 The Rams fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% NYG LA: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:29 D. Zvada made 24-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +6% LA NYG: Punt
8 Q2 0:02 H. Mevis missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +5% NYG LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Puka Nacua (LA WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Justin Dedich (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kamren Kinchens (LA S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 22
Luck in points
10.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 32.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 6% · Rams 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Giants · Rams

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