luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Vikings at Bears, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 9–3, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 6:26 left): C. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blocked, worth 25 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Chicago Bears 3

September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +45 Vikings lucky · −45 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 32 CHI 13
  2. 2 MIN 24 CHI 12
  3. 3 MIN 18 CHI 10
  4. 4 MIN 27 CHI 23
  5. 5 MIN 16 CHI 14
  6. 6 MIN 9 CHI 11
  7. 7 MIN 5 CHI 10
  8. 8 MIN 8 CHI 17
  9. 9 MIN 0 CHI 13
  10. 10 MIN 13 CHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 55% of them, Bears 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+8.2%
Vikings by 9–1616.2%
Vikings by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation6.9%
Bears by 1–822.6%
Bears by 9–1614.3%
Bears by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Bears by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • W. Reichard, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Santos, 23 yds blocked · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 25 yards, Bears 8 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.1 pts
Q1 2:57 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 1:53 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.8 pts
Q1 1:47 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:18 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yards +7% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 3:02 Illegal Shift on the Bears (Sam Roush), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% MIN +2.1 pts
Q2 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:13 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 13 yards +5% MIN +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.2 pts
Q4 14:43 False Start on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 4:05 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:47 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% MIN CHI: Punt
2 Q2 2:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 293rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedFalse Start on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% MIN CHI: Punt
3 Q3 10:19 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CHI CHI: Turnover
4 Q3 9:42 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIN CHI: Punt
5 Q4 11:42 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +15% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
6 Q4 6:26 The game turned hereC. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blockedKicks · 100% expected for him +25% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:10 The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:01 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +22% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 19% · Bears 81%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
11.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 55% · Bears 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Vikings · Bears

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