luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Minnesota Vikings, 2026: game by game

The Vikings went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers W 39–22 45% +55
Week 2 @ Bears W 9–3 55% +45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.89+19.9
Kicks+0.18+3.1
3rd & 4th downs+0.13+3.9
Drops+0.13+3.3
Fumble bounces+0.10+1.6
Injuries+0.06+2.1