luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Browns at Buccaneers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Buccaneers 23–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 11, worth 26 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

September 20, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −8.5

Luck index +57 Browns lucky · −57 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 29 TB 10
  2. 2 CLE 26 TB 14
  3. 3 CLE 20 TB 13
  4. 4 CLE 10 TB 8
  5. 5 CLE 16 TB 18
  6. 6 CLE 14 TB 19
  7. 7 CLE 10 TB 17
  8. 8 CLE 9 TB 19
  9. 9 CLE 12 TB 27
  10. 10 CLE 7 TB 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 43% of them, Buccaneers 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+8.1%
Browns by 9–1613.5%
Browns by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Buccaneers by 1–826.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1616.2%
Buccaneers by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Browns by 4, without the luck Browns by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 59 yds made · 63% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 86% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 50 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:28 Face Mask on the Browns (Sam Williams), 15 yards +3% TB +0.8 pts
Q1 13:16 Encroachment on the Browns (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.3 pts
Q1 7:29 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +1.1 pts
Q1 1:48 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 1:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Alex Anzalone), 12 yards +5% CLE +1.4 pts
Q1 0:57 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 14:18 Encroachment on the Buccaneers (Calijah Kancey), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.2 pts
Q2 12:44 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +2.0 pts
Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Blake Whiteheart), 10 yards +3% TB +1.3 pts
Q2 5:51 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +2.5 pts
Q3 1:37 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.2 pts
Q4 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +11% CLE +1.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:09 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedK. Gainwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 163 catchable balls before this +8% CLE TB: Field goal
2 Q2 12:11 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +8% TB TB: Punt
3 Q2 2:50 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% TB CLE: End of half
4 Q4 6:48 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: End of game
7 Q4 0:33 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +13% CLE TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +26% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jacob Parrish (TB CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CLE G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 72% · Buccaneers 28%

Final margin
Browns by 4
Luck in points
0.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 43% · Buccaneers 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Browns · Buccaneers

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