luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Cleveland Browns, 2026: game by game

The Browns went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Jaguars L 10–34 2% −2
Week 2 @ Buccaneers W 23–19 43% +57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.20+2.5
3rd & 4th downs+0.10−1.8
Kicks−0.02−2.3
Drops−0.070.0
Fumble bounces−0.08−3.1