luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Eagles at Titans, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Titans 24–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:11 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 34 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Tennessee Titans 20

September 20, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +26 Eagles lucky · −26 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 31 TEN 7
  2. 2 PHI 21 TEN 3
  3. 3 PHI 23 TEN 10
  4. 4 PHI 17 TEN 7
  5. 5 PHI 14 TEN 7
  6. 6 PHI 17 TEN 13
  7. 7 PHI 12 TEN 10
  8. 8 PHI 12 TEN 14
  9. 9 PHI 0 TEN 7
  10. 10 PHI 3 TEN 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 74% of them, Titans 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+18.9%
Eagles by 9–1624.1%
Eagles by 1–829.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Titans by 1–814.5%
Titans by 9–165.6%
Titans by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 4, without the luck Eagles by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 35 yards, Titans 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:28 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jacob Martin), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% PHI +3.4 pts
Q2 10:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Calvin Ridley), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.3 pts
Q2 4:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 5 yards +4% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +3% TEN +1.3 pts
Q2 0:38 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +5% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Titans (Joey Slye), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q3 13:46 Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 8:39 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts
Q4 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +6% PHI +1.3 pts
Q4 3:33 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PHI +0.4 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:11 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +34% TEN PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:03 J. Slye made 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +11% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q3 1:03 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:21 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% PHI PHI: Turnover
5 Q4 2:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +19% TEN TEN: Field goal
6 Q4 1:56 D. Wicks dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 137 catchable balls before this +16% TEN PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:48 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +17% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendell Brooks (TEN DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylen Harrell (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 55% · Titans 45%

Final margin
Eagles by 4
Luck in points
3.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 74% · Titans 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Eagles · Titans

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