luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Cardinals converted 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Arizona Cardinals 7

September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +30 Seahawks lucky · −30 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 27 ARI 3
  2. 2 SEA 23 ARI 7
  3. 3 SEA 26 ARI 13
  4. 4 SEA 23 ARI 14
  5. 5 SEA 13 ARI 7
  6. 6 SEA 16 ARI 13
  7. 7 SEA 20 ARI 19
  8. 8 SEA 17 ARI 20
  9. 9 SEA 16 ARI 23
  10. 10 SEA 14 ARI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 70% of them, Cardinals 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+22.0%
Seahawks by 9–1622.1%
Seahawks by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Cardinals by 1–815.2%
Cardinals by 9–167.7%
Cardinals by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Seahawks by 24, without the luck Seahawks by 30. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Seahawks 3 for 26 yards, Cardinals 6 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:43 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% SEA +1.2 pts
Q1 2:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Rodney Thomas II), 8 yards +5% ARI +2.3 pts
Q2 7:42 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 7:16 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 3 yards +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 5:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Karson Sharar), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 0:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Nehemiah Pritchett), 13 yards +2% ARI +0.3 pts
Q3 14:48 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 13:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 16 yards +1% SEA +1.1 pts
Q4 3:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 4 yards 0% SEA +0.8 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +14% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:22 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedR. Shaheed dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 169 catchable balls before this +7% ARI SEA: Punt
3 Q2 1:16 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% ARI SEA: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:04 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
5 Q2 0:11 J. Smith-Njigba dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 330 catchable balls before this +7% ARI SEA: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 15:00 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:39 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% SEA ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Fryar (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Darnold (SEA QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 6.0 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 24
Luck in points
6.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 30.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 70% · Cardinals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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