luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Steelers at Patriots, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Steelers 20–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:46 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 16 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 3
New England Patriots 20

September 20, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −4.5

Luck index +10 Patriots about even · −10 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 44 NE 37
  2. 2 PIT 21 NE 23
  3. 3 PIT 22 NE 27
  4. 4 PIT 24 NE 32
  5. 5 PIT 23 NE 35
  6. 6 PIT 13 NE 28
  7. 7 PIT 10 NE 27
  8. 8 PIT 12 NE 33
  9. 9 PIT 7 NE 32
  10. 10 PIT 9 NE 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 10% of them, Patriots 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.9%
Steelers by 9–162.4%
Steelers by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Patriots by 1–818.4%
Patriots by 9–1621.3%
Patriots by 17+49.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 17, without the luck Patriots by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 57 yds missed · 68% expected
  • A. Borregales, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 69% expected
  • A. Borregales, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
  • A. Borregales, 45 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 59 yards, Patriots 6 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:32 Taunting on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q1 9:26 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% NE +1.3 pts
Q1 1:24 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 7:35 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Efton Chism), 6 yards +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:24 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Keeanu Benton), 15 yards +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 2:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kevin Byard), 5 yards +1% PIT +1.4 pts
Q2 0:12 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.3 pts
Q3 11:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Robert Spillane), 5 yards +2% PIT +1.7 pts
Q3 1:55 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NE +2.1 pts
Q4 1:13 Face Mask on the Steelers (Payton Wilson), 15 yards +2% NE +2.0 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:26 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 20 flags in 5104 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:15 C. Boswell missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 73 of 90 from 45+ before +6% NE PIT: Punt
3 Q3 13:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% NE NE: Turnover
4 Q3 7:19 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% NE NE: Missed field goal
5 Q3 3:55 A. Borregales missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before +5% PIT NE: Field goal
6 Q3 2:27 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedD. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 341 catchable balls before this +8% NE PIT: Punt
7 Q4 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NE NE: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 13:46 The Steelers fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +16% NE PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bryce Baringer (NE P), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 1% · Patriots 99%

Final margin
Patriots by 17
Luck in points
2.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 10% · Patriots 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Steelers · Patriots

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