2026 season · in progress
New England Patriots, 2026: game by game
The Patriots went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.1 wins. Luck cost them 0.1: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | L 10–13 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 2 | vs Steelers | W 20–3 | 90% | +10 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.04 | +6.3 |
| Injuries | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | −1.6 |