luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Bengals at Texans, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Texans 20–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Houston Texans 6

September 20, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +56 Bengals lucky · −56 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 24 HOU 3
  2. 2 CIN 16 HOU 3
  3. 3 CIN 16 HOU 9
  4. 4 CIN 24 HOU 21
  5. 5 CIN 7 HOU 9
  6. 6 CIN 20 HOU 25
  7. 7 CIN 17 HOU 26
  8. 8 CIN 18 HOU 30
  9. 9 CIN 10 HOU 26
  10. 10 CIN 20 HOU 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 44% of them, Texans 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+7.8%
Bengals by 9–1613.7%
Bengals by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Texans by 1–826.9%
Texans by 9–1615.9%
Texans by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 14, without the luck Bengals by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 65% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 12 for 78 yards, Texans 9 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:55 False Start on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% HOU +3.3 pts
Q1 5:04 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.4 pts
Q1 3:07 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 11:56 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:14 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:53 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 5 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:17 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Cedric Johnson), 10 yards +4% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 0:14 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 5 yards +1% HOU 0.0 pts
Q3 14:40 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Texans (Foster Moreau), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 11:12 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 6:54 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 2:59 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Barrett Carter), 5 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q3 0:44 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 0:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 10:55 Intentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 13 yards +1% CIN +1.2 pts
Q4 9:54 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 8:30 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Texans (Jamal Hill), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 5:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Jared Wayne), 10 yards +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q4 4:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Myles Murphy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:01 Face Mask on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 13 yards 0% HOU +1.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 3:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 6:58 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% CIN HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 5:32 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:19 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% CIN HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q3 7:33 K. Fairbairn missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 63 of 86 from 45+ before +10% CIN HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 3:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 94% · Texans 6%

Final margin
Bengals by 14
Luck in points
3.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 44% · Texans 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Bengals · Texans

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