luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Cincinnati Bengals, 2026: game by game

The Bengals went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Buccaneers W 33–27 96% +4
Week 2 @ Texans W 20–6 44% +56

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.18+6.8
3rd & 4th downs+0.13+4.8
Fumble bounces+0.11+4.7
Injuries+0.05+1.8
Judgment calls−0.22−6.3