luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Jaguars at Broncos, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jaguars 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:15 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Denver Broncos 20

September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +40 Broncos lucky · −40 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 30 DEN 12
  2. 2 JAX 35 DEN 24
  3. 3 JAX 24 DEN 17
  4. 4 JAX 23 DEN 20
  5. 5 JAX 28 DEN 30
  6. 6 JAX 23 DEN 27
  7. 7 JAX 27 DEN 34
  8. 8 JAX 7 DEN 17
  9. 9 JAX 21 DEN 35
  10. 10 JAX 7 DEN 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 40% of them, Broncos 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.7%
Jaguars by 9–1612.1%
Jaguars by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
Broncos by 1–829.8%
Broncos by 9–1617.0%
Broncos by 17+12.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 7, without the luck Broncos by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Little, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 3 for 18 yards, Broncos 10 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:36 False Start on the Broncos (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q1 11:13 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +2.2 pts
Q1 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Pat Bryant), 10 yards +3% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 13:32 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Parker Washington), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% DEN +2.3 pts
Q2 12:06 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 5:34 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.3 pts
Q2 2:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DEN +2.1 pts
Q2 0:16 Defensive Delay of Game on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 10:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Alex Singleton), 3 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 6:11 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 4:53 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% DEN 0.0 pts
Q4 7:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 3 yards +8% DEN +2.4 pts
Q4 6:03 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards +1% JAX +0.3 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:13 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2666 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q2 2:15 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% JAX DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 2:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q3 1:40 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% DEN JAX: Missed field goal
5 Q4 13:52 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:11 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q4 9:45 C. Little missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before +8% DEN JAX: Punt
8 Q4 7:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 3 yardsJudgment calls +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • RJ Harvey (DEN RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 46% · Broncos 54%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
6.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 40% · Broncos 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Jaguars · Broncos

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