luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2026: game by game

The Jaguars went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Browns W 34–10 98% +2
Week 2 @ Broncos L 13–20 40% −40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.11+1.5
Fumble bounces+0.03+1.6
Judgment calls−0.05+1.9
Kicks−0.07−1.8
Drops−0.14−4.7