2026 season · in progress
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2026: game by game
The Jaguars went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.11 | +1.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.03 | +1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.05 | +1.9 |
| Kicks | −0.07 | −1.8 |
| Drops | −0.14 | −4.7 |