2026 season · in progress
Denver Broncos, 2026: game by game
The Broncos went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chiefs | L 10–31 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 2 | vs Jaguars | W 20–13 | 60% | +40 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.19 | +3.5 |
| Kicks | +0.09 | +3.2 |
| Judgment calls | +0.07 | +1.0 |
| Injuries | +0.05 | +1.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.11 | −3.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.17 | −4.7 |