luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 17, 2026

Lions at Bills, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Lions 41–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:49 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
Buffalo Bills 41

September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +6 Bills about even · −6 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 DET 27 BUF 23
  2. 2 DET 31 BUF 33
  3. 3 DET 23 BUF 28
  4. 4 DET 26 BUF 34
  5. 5 DET 27 BUF 38
  6. 6 DET 14 BUF 28
  7. 7 DET 17 BUF 34
  8. 8 DET 17 BUF 37
  9. 9 DET 24 BUF 49
  10. 10 DET 2 BUF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 6% of them, Bills 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.3%
Lions by 9–161.6%
Lions by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bills by 1–814.6%
Bills by 9–1621.3%
Bills by 17+57.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Lions: the final margin was Bills by 10, without the luck Bills by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 10 for 58 yards, Bills 5 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 10 yards +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q1 12:54 Defensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 5 yards +3% BUF +0.8 pts
Q2 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Roger McCreary), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +6.0 pts
Q2 12:48 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 2 yards, wiping out the play +2% BUF +1.0 pts
Q2 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +2.7 pts
Q2 3:01 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yards +1% DET +1.8 pts
Q2 1:56 False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 1:03 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q2 0:16 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:06 Tripping on the Bills (Landon Jackson), 13 yards +2% DET +1.6 pts
Q3 1:28 Face Mask on the Lions (Devin White), 2 yards +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 12:24 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Davison Igbinosun), 5 yards +2% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 12:24 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 11:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 8 yards +1% DET +2.5 pts
Q4 1:33 Face Mask on the Lions (Tyler Lacy), 15 yards 0% BUF +2.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:54 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% BUF DET: Punt
3 Q1 6:27 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:49 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Roger McCreary), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:40 The Lions converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:37 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedK. Shakir dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 270 catchable balls before this +4% DET BUF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 12% · Bills 88%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
0.5 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 6% · Bills 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Lions · Bills

More from Week 2 2026