luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Detroit Lions, 2026: game by game

The Lions went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Saints W 31–30 41% +59
Week 2 @ Bills L 31–41 6% −6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.10+3.7
3rd & 4th downs−0.05−2.6
Fumble bounces−0.15+1.6
Judgment calls−0.19−5.3