2026 season · in progress
Buffalo Bills, 2026: game by game
The Bills went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.35 | +4.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.12 | −1.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.12 | +6.0 |
| Drops | −0.04 | −3.7 |