luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

New Orleans Saints, 2026: game by game

The Saints went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–1.

Every game

How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions L 30–31 59% −59
Week 2 @ Ravens W 24–17 13% +87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Fumble bounces+0.18+1.6
3rd & 4th downs+0.18+4.8
Judgment calls+0.16+2.2
Drops+0.04−0.7
Kicks−0.07+1.6