2026 season · in progress
San Francisco 49ers, 2026: game by game
The 49ers went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rams | W 27–7 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Dolphins | W 35–13 | 99% | +1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.11 | −6.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +2.3 |
| Kicks | +0.03 | +1.3 |
| Injuries | −0.04 | −2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | −1.6 |
| Drops | −0.07 | −1.7 |