luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Miami Dolphins, 2026: game by game

The Dolphins went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Raiders L 13–27 55% −55
Week 2 @ 49ers L 13–35 1% −1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+0.07+0.5
Injuries+0.05+2.1
3rd & 4th downs−0.07−3.1
Judgment calls−0.13+0.7
Kicks−0.16−7.7