luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

New York Jets, 2026: game by game

The Jets went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Titans W 23–10 81% +19
Week 2 vs Packers L 17–20 66% −66

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.16+2.4
Injuries+0.05+1.7
Drops+0.04+1.1
Fumble bounces+0.03+3.1
Judgment calls−0.18−6.8
Kicks−0.22−0.9