Week 3 2026 · September 24, 2026
Falcons at Packers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Packers 35–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.
An off day for the Packers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:47 left): T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blocked, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 35 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Falcons about even · −10 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Packers win 1.
- 1 ATL 41 GB 10
- 2 ATL 27 GB 3
- 3 ATL 27 GB 7
- 4 ATL 37 GB 20
- 5 ATL 34 GB 20
- 6 ATL 43 GB 31
- 7 ATL 37 GB 28
- 8 ATL 29 GB 23
- 9 ATL 30 GB 28
- 10 ATL 10 GB 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.07 | better by 0.24 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.15 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.14 | worse by 0.22 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.07 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 90% of them, Packers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 50.6% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Packers by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- T. Smack, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
- N. Folk, 31 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 83 yards, Packers 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:45 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:44 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards | +2% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 8:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 15 yards | +5% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:13 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Josh Woods), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:14 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 15 yards | +6% ATL +2.4 pts |
| Q2 4:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 34 yards | +8% GB +4.1 pts |
| Q3 8:42 | Illegal Contact on the Packers (Brandon Cisse), 5 yards | 0% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +1% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:55 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.7 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | The Packers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 79 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +5% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 | +6% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 4250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +8% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:47 | T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +11% ATL | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:02 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:50 | M. Golden dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 47 catchable balls before this | +5% ATL | GB: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:02 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +10% ATL | GB: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jayden Reed (GB WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.4 pts
- Zach Bako-Bewele (GB OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 100% · Packers 0%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 21
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 17.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 90% · Packers 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Falcons · 
Packers