2026 season · in progress
Atlanta Falcons, 2026: game by game
The Falcons went 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Steelers | L 13–20 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 2 | vs Panthers | L 3–34 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | @ Packers | W 35–14 | 90% | +10 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.14 | +5.0 |
| Drops | +0.11 | +5.8 |
| Kicks | +0.10 | −2.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | −1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.29 | −8.5 |