luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Packers at Cardinals, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cardinals 27–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:32 left): the Packers converted 4th & 2, worth 19 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 27
Arizona Cardinals 23

October 19, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Packers −7

Luck index +30 Packers lucky · −30 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 GB 30 ARI 3
  2. 2 GB 30 ARI 10
  3. 3 GB 26 ARI 13
  4. 4 GB 20 ARI 10
  5. 5 GB 24 ARI 17
  6. 6 GB 13 ARI 9
  7. 7 GB 19 ARI 17
  8. 8 GB 13 ARI 16
  9. 9 GB 13 ARI 21
  10. 10 GB 10 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 70% of them, Cardinals 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+21.3%
Packers by 9–1620.9%
Packers by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Cardinals by 1–815.7%
Cardinals by 9–167.4%
Cardinals by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 4, without the luck Cardinals by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 61 yds made · 56% expected
  • C. Ryland, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 10 for 94 yards, Cardinals 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:33 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Quay Walker), 8 yards +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 11:30 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 5 yards +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 11:23 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 15 yards +6% GB +1.9 pts
Q2 8:24 Hip Drop Tackle on the Packers (Micah Parsons), 15 yards +6% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 3:04 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q2 0:19 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.1 pts
Q3 11:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Evan Williams), 21 yards +5% ARI +3.0 pts
Q3 11:43 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q3 2:20 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 5 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 1:00 Offensive Offside on the Packers (Malik Heath), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +1.2 pts
Q3 0:34 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Dante Stills), 10 yards +4% GB +1.6 pts
Q4 14:55 Face Mask on the Packers (Arron Mosby), 15 yards +3% ARI +1.3 pts
Q4 14:09 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Nate Hobbs), 5 yards +5% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 9:01 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kitan Oladapo), 10 yards +2% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 1:50 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +5% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 1:04 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +3% ARI +0.2 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:58 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +15% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q4 9:50 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% GB ARI: Field goal
3 Q4 8:57 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% GB GB: Punt
4 Q4 5:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +18% GB ARI: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:08 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:09 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% ARI GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:32 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +19% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 3.5 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon McManus (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Belton (GB T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 62% · Cardinals 38%

Final margin
Packers by 4
Luck in points
4.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 70% · Cardinals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Packers · Cardinals

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