luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · October 16, 2025–October 20

Week 7 2025: who deserved to win

1 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Steelers 33–31 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 33–31 vs Steelers 34% 36% Lucky
Colts 38–24 @ Chargers 43% 56% Coin flip
Panthers 13–6 @ Jets 46% 85% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 33–31 vs Steelers 36% +64
2 Broncos W 33–32 vs Giants 52% +48
3 Eagles W 28–22 @ Vikings 54% +46
4 Colts W 38–24 @ Chargers 56% +44
5 Cowboys W 44–22 vs Commanders 60% +40
6 Lions W 24–9 vs Buccaneers 67% +33
7 Packers W 27–23 @ Cardinals 70% +30
8 49ers W 20–10 vs Falcons 74% +26
9 Browns W 31–6 vs Dolphins 76% +24
10 Panthers W 13–6 @ Jets 85% +15
11 Seahawks W 27–19 vs Texans 88% +12
12 Patriots W 31–13 @ Titans 92% +8
13 Rams W 35–7 @ Jaguars 95% +5
14 Bears W 26–14 vs Saints 96% +4
15 Chiefs W 31–0 vs Raiders 99% +1
16 Raiders L 0–31 @ Chiefs 1% −1
17 Saints L 14–26 @ Bears 4% −4
18 Jaguars L 7–35 vs Rams 5% −5
19 Titans L 13–31 vs Patriots 8% −8
20 Texans L 19–27 @ Seahawks 12% −12
21 Jets L 6–13 vs Panthers 15% −15
22 Dolphins L 6–31 @ Browns 24% −24
23 Falcons L 10–20 @ 49ers 26% −26
24 Cardinals L 23–27 vs Packers 30% −30
25 Buccaneers L 9–24 @ Lions 33% −33
26 Commanders L 22–44 @ Cowboys 40% −40
27 Chargers L 24–38 vs Colts 44% −44
28 Vikings L 22–28 vs Eagles 46% −46
29 Giants L 32–33 @ Broncos 48% −48
30 Steelers L 31–33 @ Bengals 64% −64