luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · October 9, 2025–October 13

Week 6 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Commanders 25–24 in a game they win 35% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 34–17 vs Eagles 30% 71% Deserved
Bears 25–24 @ Commanders 34% 35% Lucky
Falcons 24–14 vs Bills 40% 39% Lucky
Panthers 30–27 vs Cowboys 41% 84% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 25–24 @ Commanders 35% +65
2 Falcons W 24–14 vs Bills 39% +62
3 Chargers W 29–27 @ Dolphins 53% +47
4 Chiefs W 30–17 vs Lions 64% +36
5 Buccaneers W 30–19 vs 49ers 68% +32
6 Rams W 17–3 @ Ravens 71% +29
7 Giants W 34–17 vs Eagles 71% +29
8 Patriots W 25–19 @ Saints 73% +27
9 Colts W 31–27 vs Cardinals 83% +17
10 Panthers W 30–27 vs Cowboys 84% +16
11 Broncos W 13–11 @ Jets 85% +15
12 Raiders W 20–10 vs Titans 93% +7
13 Seahawks W 20–12 @ Jaguars 94% +6
14 Steelers W 23–9 vs Browns 96% +4
15 Packers W 27–18 vs Bengals 97% +3
16 Bengals L 18–27 @ Packers 3% −3
17 Browns L 9–23 @ Steelers 4% −4
18 Jaguars L 12–20 vs Seahawks 6% −6
19 Titans L 10–20 @ Raiders 7% −7
20 Jets L 11–13 vs Broncos 15% −15
21 Cowboys L 27–30 @ Panthers 16% −16
22 Cardinals L 27–31 @ Colts 17% −17
23 Saints L 19–25 vs Patriots 27% −27
24 Eagles L 17–34 @ Giants 29% −29
25 Ravens L 3–17 vs Rams 29% −29
26 49ers L 19–30 @ Buccaneers 32% −32
27 Lions L 17–30 @ Chiefs 36% −36
28 Dolphins L 27–29 vs Chargers 47% −47
29 Bills L 14–24 @ Falcons 62% −62
30 Commanders L 24–25 vs Bears 65% −65